Cue Realism

I have been working my way through David Kilcullen's "Accidental Guerrilla."  He describes counterinsurgency success in Kunar Province, by way of standard counterinsurgency doctrine: protect the people, build links between the people and the national government, improve indigenous forces, etc.  One is left with an optimistic feeling.  It appears that Obama, Petraeus, and McChrystal will now be trying to copy the Kunar method in the rest of Afghanistan.

So we are really going to give this old college try: forging a nation-state out of a collection of perpetually warring tribes.  Let's assume that it's possible.  What is the strategic rationale for this effort?  Al Qaeda Central is in Pakistan, not Afghanistan.  A completely secure Afghanistan will not materially affect our ability to influence events in Pakistan.  Drone strikes will still be the limit of our power.  Anything will more will still depend on the cooperation of the Pakistani military and intelligence services, and the Pakistani border tribes. 

A secure Afghanistan will create one less place to hide for Al Qaeda.  But I don't see how it will positively affect events in Pakistan.